With just seven gameweeks remaining, the Premier League’s race for Champions League qualification is reaching fever pitch. For the first time, a top-five finish guarantees a spot in Europe’s elite competition—and only six points separate the five clubs chasing the places behind Liverpool and Arsenal.
Currently in third, Nottingham Forest are enjoying a remarkable turnaround under Nuno Espirito Santo. Just a year after flirting with relegation, Forest now hold an 87.3% chance of securing a top-five spot. A Champions League berth would not only affirm their resurgence but also fuel their summer transfer ambitions and help retain rising stars like Morgan Gibbs-White and Anthony Elanga.
Chelsea, sitting fourth, face mounting pressure. Their new ownership has yet to oversee Champions League football, and the financial boost it would bring—especially with up to £97 million also on offer from this summer’s Club World Cup—makes qualification essential. Manager Enzo Maresca’s season could well hinge on these final fixtures.
Fifth-placed Newcastle United are determined to return to the competition after a brief absence. Champions League football is seen as vital to keeping key players such as Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimarães. Eddie Howe, having delivered silverware this season, could use qualification to secure both player retention and recruitment power.
Manchester City, in sixth, might be the most surprising name in the hunt. While their financial muscle ensures survival even without qualification, Pep Guardiola insists reaching the Champions League is a priority, especially as the club gears up for a potential summer rebuild.
Aston Villa, just a point behind City, have the lowest probability (21.1%) of a top-five finish. But with Unai Emery leading a promising campaign on multiple fronts, Champions League football could be the key to sustaining momentum, attracting marquee names, and staying within spending regulations.
With so much at stake, the closing stretch of this Premier League season promises drama, tension, and potential transformation for several clubs aiming to dine at Europe’s top table.