Liverpool remain 12 points clear at the top of the Premier League table, on course for another title. However, the recent dip in form following their Carabao Cup final defeat to Newcastle has raised concerns. Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher pointed out that the team has “run out of steam,” an issue that has been reflected in their physical battles and duel success rates in recent weeks.
Fatigue Evident in Liverpool’s Duels
Arne Slot dismissed the notion that Liverpool’s loss to Newcastle was due to fatigue, instead blaming a lack of success in duels. However, the numbers suggest otherwise. Liverpool have recorded three of their five lowest duel success rates this season within the last two weeks. Against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, they won only 32.5% of duels—their worst record in the competition. Similarly, in the return leg at Anfield and against Newcastle at Wembley, they managed only 42.7%.
Earlier in the season, Liverpool won over 50% of their duels in nine of their first 18 league games. Since the turn of the year, they have done so in only two of their last 11. This trend suggests that, despite Slot’s claims, his team has lost its physical edge.
Squad Rotation a Key Factor
One of the main lessons for Slot is the importance of squad rotation. Liverpool have averaged just 1.76 lineup changes per Premier League match, the seventh-lowest in the division. This is significantly lower than past title-winning teams, which have averaged 2.79 changes per game. This lack of rotation has led to several key players—Virgil van Dijk, Mohamed Salah, Ryan Gravenberch, and Alexis Mac Allister—logging over 3,000 minutes already, with others like Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson, Luis Diaz, and Ibrahima Konaté not far behind.
Players like Gravenberch and Konaté have seen massive increases in playing time compared to last season, and the effects are starting to show. The result is a team that struggles to maintain consistency and intensity, particularly in the latter stages of the season.
Impact of Fresh Legs
Interestingly, Liverpool’s recent game-winning moments have come from fresher players off the bench. Darwin Nunez set up Harvey Elliott’s goal in Paris, while substitutes Elliott and Federico Chiesa combined for the decisive goal at Wembley. Elliott has played only 583 minutes this season compared to 2,786 last term, while Chiesa has just 387 minutes since arriving from Juventus.
The reliance on a core group of overworked players while underutilizing fresh legs suggests that Slot may need to rethink his approach. Whether due to a lack of faith in his squad depth or a preference for consistency, the strategy has come at a cost.
Looking Ahead: Squad Management and Transfers
While Liverpool’s title charge remains on track, Slot must take heed of these warning signs if he hopes to sustain success beyond this season. With potential departures of key figures like Salah, Van Dijk, and Alexander-Arnold in the summer, the upcoming transfer window will be crucial. Reinforcements are needed, but so is a more balanced approach to squad management.
Liverpool’s success this season has been remarkable, but to maintain their dominance, Slot must learn from their recent struggles and ensure his team remains physically resilient for the long haul.